Gold may not be looking so shiny after all. The GLD gold ETF, which tracks the commodity’s price, is down more than 2% in the past two weeks after a red-hot summer. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, said the drop could continue.
“We’re of the view that this safety trade in general is coming off this very extended condition, and I think could continue to unwind,” said Wald.
“I think it’s important to distinguish that gold was trading lockstep with bond prices. As rates were collapsing, gold got a bid. It was moving higher, and now as rates start to back up a little bit, gold is correcting. So, I think one’s view on gold and bond prices should be aligned here.”
Gold futures dropped below $1,500 on Tuesday even after analysts at Citigroup backed the trade, targeting a record high of $2,000 in the next year or two. They were still under $1,500 on Wednesday morning.
But Wald isn’t digging in deeper on the metal just yet.
“I think there’s a little bit more downside here. Speaking in terms of the GLD, support starts at $139, followed by $136.50. There’s some gaps in the chart there, still a positive trend, so not meaningful downside, but at least a little bit more time is needed,” said Wald.
Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, agrees that gold isn’t worth mining right here.
“I’m not interested at these levels … I think there are places you can invest and, from these levels, make more money,” she said.
Tengler said she’s worried about the GLD, in particular, since the ETF is not backed dollar for dollar with gold bullion, but rather trades the sentiment around it.
“I’m more interested in actual companies that make money and I can measure. … I think you sit this one out for a while, and if you do want to own it, you own the actual metal at less than 5% of your total portfolio,” Tengler said.